Netanyahu and Eisenkot compete in Israel's post-October 7 Knesset election

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar party face off in Israel's Knesset election, with polls opening at 7:00 a.m. on Tuesday. The race pits Netanyahu's current coalition against an opposition bloc seeking to replace him after the war that followed the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. Neither side appears likely to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority without the support of Arab parties, according to recent projections.

Voting began with stations opening at 7:00 a.m. Exit polls are scheduled for release at 10:00 p.m., providing preliminary projections. Official results will be finalized in the coming days after the vote count is completed. The election marks the first general vote since the October 7 attack, shifting the political focus from traditional issues to immediate security and accountability concerns.

The campaign centered on the Israel Defense Forces' manpower crisis, legislation regarding the conscription of ultra-Orthodox men, and calls for a state commission of inquiry into the government's performance on October 7. The establishment of a Palestinian state moved to the background, as most parties now agree against its creation. The fate of Netanyahu, who has led the country for 19 non-consecutive years, remained a central question for voters.

The opposition bloc has argued that Netanyahu must be held accountable for the attacks and should no longer serve as prime minister. Polls suggest no clear winner, as neither bloc is projected to reach the 61-seat threshold independently. The final Channel 12 poll released on Friday showed Netanyahu's bloc with 50 seats and the opposition bloc with 56. Arab parties were projected to win a combined 16 seats.

Most opposition leaders have pledged not to form a government with Arab parties, citing the context of the October 7 attacks. In the Channel 12 poll, Netanyahu's Likud party was projected to win 19 seats, down from its current 32. Eisenkot's Yashar party led all parties with a projection of 22 seats. Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad party was projected to win 14 seats.

Voter turnout will determine the number of votes required to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold. According to calculations by Prof. Alex Weinreb of the Taub Center, a party needs 165,635 votes to enter the Knesset at a 70% turnout rate, similar to the 2022 election. As turnout increases, the required vote count rises, creating a tougher challenge for smaller parties.

Parties such as Ofer Winter's People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel's Reservists-Economics are fighting to clear this threshold. Whether they succeed could affect the ability of both major blocs to form a coalition. A slight shift in support for these small parties could determine whether their supporters gain representation in the next Knesset.

Police prepared for public order disruptions, particularly after the release of exit polls. Authorities announced that approximately 20,000 police officers, Border Police officers, and volunteers would be deployed nationwide on Election Day. These forces are positioned at thousands of polling stations and in surrounding areas to maintain safety and protect the democratic process.

The police stated their goal is to safeguard the integrity of the elections and ensure the process is conducted in accordance with the law. Voting at diplomatic missions abroad concluded on October 16, while voting at some military bases began the previous week. The outcome of this election will determine the composition of the next Knesset and the direction of Israel's government.