Texas Early Voting Trails 2018 Pace as Nov. 3 Election Nears

A record 19 million Texans are registered for the Nov. 3 election, and 4.4 million of them had already voted by Sunday, the first seven days of early voting. The Texas secretary of state reported 23.4% of registered voters had cast a ballot or returned a mail ballot from Oct. 19 through Sunday. That trails the 24.3% recorded during the same span in 2018 and runs ahead of the 2022 midterm.

Derek Ryan, a Republican consultant and data analyst, said he expects turnout to climb through Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Early voting closes Friday. "We could see anywhere between maybe 20 to 30% of the votes that get cast in this election get cast on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday this week," Ryan said. He projects as many as 10 million Texans could vote, near the 53% turnout recorded in 2018.

Ryan's analysis of the first seven days found 35% of ballots cast came from voters with a prior Democratic primary history, against 33% from Republican primary voters. Another 29% came from people who had never voted or had only taken part in a general election, and 4% had split primary participation. "This is actually new territory," Ryan said. "I don't think that I ever recall a point where voters with previous Democratic primary history have outnumbered voters with previous Republican primary history." In 2022 and 2024, he said, Republican primary voters held larger shares at that point in early voting.

Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, cautioned against drawing conclusions from the counts. Texas does not register voters by party, and each county reports its own daily totals to the state. "I think there's sometimes a tendency to over-interpret early vote numbers because we don't have good benchmarks," Jones said. "It's an evolving process, and every election tends to be a little unique."

Vinny Minchillo, a GOP strategist, said the early Democratic lead reflects higher Democratic enthusiasm but added that Republican participation has since increased. "Their enthusiasm numbers and polls are not what the Democrats are, but that doesn't mean they're not going to show up," Minchillo said. "After the first or second day of early voting, you've seen Republicans getting out. … So I have to say on behalf of Republicans everywhere, I am cautiously optimistic."

Matt Angle, a Democratic strategist, pointed to early voting tallies in urban counties. Rural counties accounted for less than 25% of votes cast so far. "If you're looking at turnout based on where it's coming from, voter history and the racial makeup, then Democrats are doing better," Angle said. "They're ahead of the pace that was in 2022 for sure."

Harris County recorded more than 127,000 votes on the first day of early voting, a record for a midterm opening in Texas. Dallas County logged more than 88,000 first-day ballots, its highest single-day total for any election.

Ryan's data shows Hispanic voters made up 18% of early voters through Sunday, one point above the 2024 figure and two points above 2022. Angle said Democrats are targeting a 24% share of the final vote from Latino voters. "Hispanics have figured out that Republicans target them and are openly hostile to Hispanics as a group," Angle said. "I think they're reacting accordingly."

Ryan said he is watching the more than 2.1 million Texans who took part in one of the last four Republican primaries but have not yet voted in a general election. "For Republicans to have any chance of victory, they're going to need to see a significant number of that 2.1 million to show up to vote," Ryan said. "We'll start really knowing what the picture looks like by Thursday or Friday."

Texas registration rose 7.7% from the 2022 midterm, reaching 19 million voters ahead of Nov. 3.