12 Knesset Seats Hang in the Balance of 640,000 New Israeli Ballots

Israel heads to the polls on Tuesday, Oct. 27, facing a contest where new voters hold the power to swing a substantial portion of the legislature. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that 640,000 citizens between the ages of 18 and 22 are eligible to cast ballots. This cohort represents nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their voting patterns could determine the outcome for as many as 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

The political weight of this demographic stems from a consistent pattern of high participation. A May survey by the IDI found that 80% to 95% of prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters said they would definitely or probably vote. Secular Jewish youth expressed the highest confidence in their participation. Among Arab respondents, 87% indicated they intended to vote. A separate poll conducted for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found 67% of young respondents certain they would vote, with another 19% likely to participate.

In contrast, the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement reported a youth turnout of 47% in the 2024 US presidential election. Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the IDI, noted that Israel’s high birth rate and young population structure make this group influential. "If their turnout is high, as our research suggests, first-time voters will make a difference," Hoffman said.

Leading up to the election, politicians targeted this group directly. In early October, a gathering in a Tel Aviv auditorium drew more than 1,000 first-time voters to hear from senior politicians. Many attendees were in pre-military preparation programs. Yael Chernyvsky, 18, from Ramat Hasharon, participated in that event. She is currently in an army preparation program in the Negev. Chernyvsky blamed the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the country’s current issues. She said she would "probably" support either the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, or Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot. Both parties belong to the opposition change bloc, which seeks to remove Netanyahu from power. He has held the premiership since 2009, aside from a brief interlude in 2021 and 2022.

National security and the cost of living emerged as the top priorities for these young voters in both major surveys. Hoffman explained that this focus is logical given the recent history of this generation. These voters were in junior high during the pandemic, witnessed the judicial reform protests, and lived through the events of Oct. 7. "They are worried about their future," she said.

Political leanings within the group are mixed. An N12 poll conducted on Sept. 23 found that 74% of young people described their views as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that same poll, 16% intended to vote for Eisenkot’s Yashar party, and 14% for Netanyahu’s Likud. Hoffman noted that while Jewish voters have generally moved rightward over the last two decades, military service can complicate that trend by raising questions about the war’s goals. Mock elections in high schools showed strong support for Yashar and Beyachad, the latter led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, with some backing for Likud and little for Itamar Ben-Gvir’s far-right party.

Individual voters illustrate this ideological spread. Omer Gross, from Jerusalem, is in an army-prep program in the Golan. He plans to support the Religious Zionist party, led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin. Despite disagreeing with Smotrich’s approach in Gaza, Gross supports his West Bank policies, stating, "We need a strong, secure Israel." Tomer Shiloh, 18, from Herzeliyah, is a program-mate of Gross but will vote for the change bloc. He wants the next government to mandate IDF service for ultra-Orthodox men and to lower living costs.

Sergeant M, a 22-year-old reservist, cited universal military service as his top priority. He will vote for the Democrats primarily for economic reasons, pointing to the costs of tuition, books, food, and housing. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, from Shef-Amra, seeks an Arab party that will close resource gaps and tackle crime. He said he is urging friends to participate and added, "I won't leave the country. This is my land, this is my home."