Nearly 10% of Israel's voters: 640,000 youth may claim 12 Knesset seats

Israel holds a general election on Tuesday, Oct. 27, with 640,000 first-time voters eligible to cast ballots. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates this group represents nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their participation could determine the outcome for as many as 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Yael Chernyvsky, an 18-year-old from Ramat Hasharon, is among those voting for the first time. She is studying in an army preparation program in the Negev. Chernyvsky said she blames the current government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the country's issues. She plans to vote for a party in the opposition "change bloc" but had not selected a specific candidate as of early October. She expressed a preference for either the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, or Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot.

Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the Israel Democracy Institute, noted that Israel has a high birth rate and a young population. Her organization co-sponsored a recent event in Tel Aviv for more than 1,000 first-time voters. A survey conducted in May by Hoffman and her colleagues found that 80% to 95% of potential young Jewish and Arab voters said they would definitely or likely vote. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents intended to vote.

This projected turnout exceeds the 47% youth participation rate in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. More than four-fifths of respondents in the Israel Democracy Institute survey described voting as fairly or very meaningful. A separate poll by Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young voters were certain they would vote, with another 19% thinking they would.

National security and the cost of living are the top priorities for these voters. Hoffman explained that this generation has lived through the pandemic, judicial reform protests, and the war that began on Oct. 7. While many are serving in the Israel Defense Forces or preparing for service, Hoffman noted that military service does not automatically produce a nationalist stance. It can also raise questions about war goals.

A Sept. 23 poll by N12 found that 74% of young people identify as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identify as left-wing or center-left. If the election had been held then, 16% would have voted for Eisenkot's Yashar party and 14% for Netanyahu's Likud party. Mock elections in high schools showed a majority of students voting for Yashar or Beyachad, led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, rather than the Likud or Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right party.

Omer Gross, an 18-year-old from Jerusalem in an army-prep program in the Golan, plans to vote for the Religious Zionist party led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin. He supports Smotrich's policies in the West Bank despite disagreeing with his objectives in Gaza. Tomer Shiloh, also in the Golan program, plans to vote for the change bloc. He wants the next government to mandate military service for Haredi men and lower the cost of living.

Sergeant M, a 22-year-old reservist, is voting for the left-of-center Democrats party due to economic concerns. He cited the difficulty of balancing study and work to cover tuition and living expenses. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, an 18-year-old from Shef-Amra, plans to vote for an Arab party to address resource gaps. He stated he wants more funding for Arab municipalities and reduced crime, adding that he will not leave the country regardless of the election outcome.