Peltola Holds 95% Odds as Alaska Count Near End

Mary Peltola is projected to win the U.S. Senate race in Alaska, according to an analysis by NBC News Decision Desk. The desk assigns at least a 95% confidence level to her victory as the vote count continues.

The former representative has maintained a narrow lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. Her advantage has grown slightly with each new batch of reported votes this week. Alaska remains the only Senate contest in the 2026 election cycle where the desk has not issued a final projection.

The race is still being tallied one week after polls closed. Many voters in the state cast their ballots by mail. The election officials count all postmarked ballots received by November 13. Voters living overseas have a few extra days to submit valid ballots.

Alaska uses a ranked-choice voting system. If no candidate reaches a majority in the initial count, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. The second-choice votes from that candidate’s supporters are then redistributed among the remaining candidates. This process repeats until one candidate secures a majority.

If Peltola wins, Democrats will hold a 56-44 majority in the Senate for the coming year. The final outcome depends on the remaining mail-in and overseas ballots. The counting process continues as officials verify these final votes.

The tight margin makes these last ballots decisive. The ranked-choice system means the final winner may not be known until the redistribution process is complete. Officials are currently processing the remaining envelopes to finalize the results.