Netanyahu, Eisenkot Face 61-Seat Barrier

Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his challenger Gadi Eisenkot holds the 61 seats required to form a government in Israel’s 120-seat parliament. The final election results place the opposition bloc ahead of Netanyahu’s right-wing alliance, but that mathematical advantage does not translate into a stable majority for either side.

Eisenkot’s center-right coalition lacks enough seats to reach a threshold without support from predominantly Arab parties. Those parties represent roughly 21% of the population and refer to themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel. Eisenkot and his allies ruled out governing with them during the campaign, citing disagreements over Hamas and the war in Gaza. Netanyahu faces a similar structural deficit because the coalition of right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox parties that supported his previous government no longer controls a majority.

The constitutional process begins in the coming days when Israel’s president consults with the leaders of every elected party. Each party will recommend a candidate it believes can assemble a government. The president is not bound to choose the leader of the largest party. Instead, the role goes to the candidate deemed most likely to secure support from at least 61 lawmakers. That candidate has 28 days to build a coalition. The president may grant a 14-day extension if the initial attempt fails.

If the first candidate fails, the president may offer the opportunity to another leader. The entire process could span weeks or months, or it may conclude without any single figure securing a majority. Based on the election data, Eisenkot appears more likely than Netanyahu to receive the highest number of recommendations from newly elected members of the Knesset.

One potential outcome is a unity government that includes both Netanyahu and Eisenkot. Media reports suggest President Trump favors this arrangement, though the claim has not been independently verified. Such a government would likely draw in moderate parties from the political center and right. This structure could facilitate cooperation on regional priorities, including the reconstruction of Gaza and potential normalization with Saudi Arabia. However, Eisenkot has repeatedly pledged not to serve in a government led by Netanyahu, and the two leaders would need to resolve questions regarding leadership rotation.

A second possibility is an Eisenkot-led government supported by Arab parties. Together, their blocs would command more than 67 seats, providing a comfortable majority. Yet this scenario remains unlikely because Eisenkot and his partners have consistently rejected the arrangement. Support from the Arab parties would not require them to join the cabinet. They could support the government from the opposition benches, but that compromise would still contradict the specific pledges made during the election campaign.

A third path is a repeat election. Israel’s president has urged leaders to avoid a new vote, especially after an election that recorded the highest turnout in decades. Netanyahu may view a second vote as advantageous. He could argue that Arab turnout might decline if voters conclude that Jewish opposition parties will not allow their representatives to govern. Liberal Israelis who traveled from overseas to vote in this cycle may also be less likely to return for another ballot.

A fourth possibility involves defections. Netanyahu would need to attract roughly eight lawmakers from outside his current bloc to reach a majority. Eisenkot would need approximately 13 defectors if he continues to exclude Arab parties. This scenario appears highly unlikely given the current alignment of seats.

While coalition talks proceed, the opposition can advance legislative initiatives in the Knesset. Eisenkot’s bloc is considering efforts to replace the speaker of the Knesset, a role that controls the legislative agenda. The bloc also aims to pass legislation establishing a state commission of inquiry into the political and security failures preceding the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023. Opponents of Netanyahu may also attempt to reverse laws that critics say weakened democratic institutions and judicial independence.

External conflicts could disrupt these internal maneuvers. In his election night speech, Netanyahu said Israel must complete its mission against Iran to remove an existential threat. Eisenkot warned Netanyahu not to use Israel’s security for political needs. Analyst Danny Citrinowicz noted that Netanyahu has an incentive to renew fighting while a government is being formed. He stated that an emergency situation would increase pressure on Eisenkot to enter a unity government. Eisenkot joined Netanyahu’s emergency government after the October 7 attack but resigned eight months later, citing political considerations over national interests.