Midterm Verdict: AP Poll links 3.7% inflation to Trump policy failures
Survey of 100,000 voters finds two-thirds blame the president's tariffs and taxes for rising prices, driving a Democratic sweep in Tuesday's races.
By Ariana Flores ·
President Donald Trump lost control of the House and Senate in Tuesday's midterm elections, a result driven largely by voter dissatisfaction with the economy. Consumer prices rose 3.7% over the past 12 months, a rate higher than the 3% figure when Trump began his second term. The AP Voter Poll, a survey of roughly 100,000 voters, indicates that this inflation was the primary reason voters turned against the Republican party.
About two-thirds of respondents said Trump's own policies fueled the price increases. This stands in contrast to the 2022 midterms, when only half of voters placed similar blame on former President Joe Biden. The survey, conducted by SSRS for The Associated Press and major news outlets, covered registered voters in all 50 states from late October through November 3. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is plus or minus 0.6 percentage points.
Voters across the country rejected the narrative that previous administrations caused the current economic conditions. The survey found that voters in states ranging from California to Mississippi agreed that Trump's taxes on foreign imports did more harm than good. Energy costs also spiked following the war with Iran that launched in February, a conflict Trump defended on Wednesday. He told reporters that the war drove gasoline prices up short term but was necessary due to Iran's nuclear push. "If I had to do it again, I'd have to do it again," he said.
The president campaigned on the premise that prices were falling, a claim that did not align with voter sentiment. At a final midterm rally in Iowa, Trump stated, "I've done a great job. Prices are coming way down." However, about 9 in 10 voters cited the cost of living as a major or crucial factor in their congressional vote. Of that group, roughly 6 in 10 supported Democratic candidates for their local House seats.
Economic growth continued, with the S&P 500 index up more than 10% this year and unemployment at 4.2%. Yet, voters remained skeptical of the artificial intelligence boom that drives much of that growth. About 6 in 10 respondents said AI would hurt society, citing job displacement or potential financial bubbles. Only about one-quarter of voters identified AI as a crucial factor in their decision.
Wealth distribution also played a role in the outcome. About 7 in 10 voters said the economy favors the wealthy, while only 3 in 10 viewed it as fair to everyday Americans. Even in California, a tech-heavy state, a majority of voters with 2025 household incomes of $300,000 or more felt the system tilted toward the rich. A slight majority nationwide still viewed capitalism favorably, though about 6 in 10 wanted the government to take a bigger role in addressing medical expenses.
Income levels divided voter priorities. Among households earning less than $50,000 a year, about 6 in 10 said they were worse off than two years ago. Higher-income voters, with 2025 incomes above $200,000, were more concerned about democracy, with 4 in 10 naming it their top issue. Without congressional approval, Trump had laid off federal workers and imposed tariffs that the Supreme Court ruled illegal earlier this year. About 6 in 10 voters overall said Trump's priorities were misplaced.
The survey methodology blended probability and non-probability interviews. The data shows a clear preference for Democratic candidates among voters who felt the economic burden most acutely. The results reflect a rejection of a presidency that many felt centered on the president rather than the working class.
