Lula Wins Brazilian Runoff, Securing 51.78% of the Vote

MANAUS, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil's presidential runoff election on Sunday with 51.78% of the vote, defeating Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, who took 48.21%. The result gave Lula a margin of 4.4 million votes after he trailed in the first round. Lula's government last week announced the lowest Amazon deforestation rate on record.

Flávio Bolsonaro did not concede the race on Monday. He said he would petition the electoral court to nullify the results. The court is scheduled to certify the outcome on Dec. 18. To succeed, he must present evidence of fraud capable of overturning the 4.4 million vote margin.

Environmental groups and climate scientists welcomed the outcome, citing the prospect of continued enforcement against illegal logging in the Amazon. About 60% of the rainforest lies within Brazil. Scientists debate the threshold beyond which the Amazon could shift to a drier ecosystem, a change that would affect biodiversity and the climate.

"The Amazon can breathe a sigh of relief!" said David Lapola, a Brazilian scientist and lead author of a chapter on tipping points in an upcoming United Nations climate report.

Indigenous communities and advocacy groups mobilized voters in the Amazon region. The Articulation of Indigenous Peoples of Brazil, known as APIB, went to court to secure access to the polls for Indigenous voters. Court rulings issued last week helped provide government transportation for people living in remote areas. APIB said in a statement that the result reflected the "strength of grassroots mobilization in defense of democracy, life and Indigenous peoples' rights."

Supporters also identified legislative hurdles ahead. Brazil's Climate Observatory, a coalition of 172 organizations, said seven in 10 incoming lawmakers oppose the climate and environmental agenda. The group cited recent measures that weakened pesticide rules, Indigenous land rights and environmental licensing. Ana Alfinito, a legal adviser for Amazon Watch, said, "A Congress strengthened by forces seeking to open Indigenous lands to mining and weaken environmental protections remains a serious threat."

Lula has supported efforts to drill for offshore oil in waters near the Amazon, a policy that has drawn criticism from some environmentalists. Flávio Bolsonaro had called for "modernizing" environmental laws and giving Amazon landholders more decision-making power. Deforestation surged under his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, whose administration weakened environmental enforcement agencies and loosened regulations between 2019 and 2022.

The Netherlands pledged $500 million on Monday to the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, a Brazil-backed fund launched at last year's U.N. climate summit in Brazil. The fund pays developing countries to keep forests standing and is seeking $10 billion by year's end. The Dutch pledge brings commitments to $7.8 billion. Claudio Angelo, the Climate Observatory's head of international policy, said prospective donors had paused plans pending the election results.

The electoral court is set to certify the presidential results on Dec. 18.