70 House districts determine the size of the Democratic majority
Democrats appear likely to retake the House on Tuesday, but the margin will depend on results in 70 competitive seats across the country.
By James Foster ·
Democrats are positioned to reclaim the House majority on Tuesday. The party will need to win a majority of the 70 districts identified as competitive to secure control. The size of their victory will range from a narrow margin to a large wave depending on performance in specific geographic areas.
Republicans entered Election Day holding a 218 to 214 advantage in the chamber. They face challenges as the governing party amid voter dissatisfaction with the economy and the war in Iran. This cycle also features a record number of congressional departures. Polls close earliest in Kentucky's 6th District and Indiana's 5th District at 6 p.m. Eastern Time.
In Kentucky's 6th District, Democrat Zach Dembo contests Republican Ralph Alvarado. Both parties have invested heavily in the race. President Trump won the district by 15 points in 2024. In Indiana's 5th District, Trump's 2024 margin was 17 points. A Democratic win in either seat signals a strong night for the opposition.
Florida provides additional early clarity due to rapid vote reporting. The state contains more than six toss-up races. In Florida's 22nd District, Democrat Pia Dandiya faces Republican Casey Askar. In the newly redrawn 25th District, incumbent Democrat Jared Moskowitz defends his seat against Republican Scott Singer. Both contests have seen high spending from both parties.
Spending in the final seven days exceeded $10 million in several districts, according to AdImpact data. Michigan's 7th District features Democrat William Lawrence challenging incumbent Republican Tom Barrett. Trump carried that seat by just over one percent in 2024. In Michigan's 10th District, Democrat Christina Hines runs against Republican Mike Bouchard. In New York's 17th District, Republican Mike Lawler maintains an advantage over Democrat Cait Conley due to party ad spending.
Iowa hosts three of the most expensive House races: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Districts. High costs result from concurrent competitive governor and Senate races that boost turnout. Redistricting after a Supreme Court ruling also impacts several seats. Democrat Shomari Figures holds Alabama's 2nd District, Democrat Marcy Kaptur holds Ohio's 9th, and Democrat Don Davis holds North Carolina's 1st. All three are now considered toss-ups or favor Democrats.
In Texas, Latino voters may shift back to Democratic candidates. This could prevent Republican Eric Flores from flipping the 34th District from Democrat Vicente Gonzalez or Republican Tano Tijerina from unseating Democrat Henry Cuellar in the 28th District. In Arkansas's 2nd District, incumbent Republican French Hill faces Democrat Chris Jones. Close to $10 million has been spent in the Little Rock-based race where Trump won by 15 points in 2024.
Ohio's 10th and 15th Districts test the limits of Republican gerrymandering. Rep. Mike Turner holds the 10th District and Rep. Mike Carey holds the 15th. Trump won both by approximately 10 points in 2024. These districts span the suburbs of Dayton and Columbus. In North Carolina, the margin in the Senate race between Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley may determine if Rep. Greg Murphy holds the 3rd District.
